← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 42% | 2.29 |
| Swansea win | 31% | 3.22 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Birmingham −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Ivan Šunjić · Birmingham |
| 36' | ⚽ | Harry Darling · Swansea |
| 38' | ⚽ | Siriki Dembélé · Birmingham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 56' | 🟨 | Scott Hogan · Birmingham |
| 58' | ⚽ | Jamal Lowe · Swansea |
| 70' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Swansea |
| 76' | 🟨 | Joe Allen · Swansea |
| 83' | 🟨 | Lee Buchanan · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan James · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jerry Yates |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 21 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | St Andrew's Stadium |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jordan James · Birmingham |
| coach days | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 5.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1511.23 | 1621.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.83 | -2.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.87 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 46.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| league points | 28.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 0.61 |
| solidity v1 | -0.92 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.99 | 26.66 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.80 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 169.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 0.87 |