← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Mon, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 38% | 39% | 2.56 | fair |
| Plymouth win | 36% | 37% | 2.69 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.76 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Plymouth +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.63 |
| Under | 41% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 20' | ⚽ | Finn Azaz · Plymouth |
| 27' | ⚽ | Morgan Whittaker · Plymouth |
| 38' | ⚽ | Ismael Koné · Watford |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · Watford |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ryan Hardie · Plymouth |
| 57' | ⚽ | Ryan Andrews · Watford |
| 59' | 🟨 | Bali Mumba · Plymouth |
| 86' | 🟨 | Adam Randell · Plymouth |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rhys Healey · Watford |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 31 | Shots | 18 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Home Park |
| Matheus Martins · Watford |
| 88' | 🟨 | Yáser Asprilla · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 0.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1597.95 | 1616.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.09 | -2.79 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 28.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 0.37 |
| solidity v1 | -1.19 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.96 |
| state index | -0.00 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.75 |