← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Mon, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 46% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| Coventry win | 28% | 30% | 3.54 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry −0.5 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Middlesbrough −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Middlesbrough |
| 34' | ⚽ | Tatsuhiro Sakamoto · Coventry |
| 58' | ⚽ | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 65' | 🟨 | Josh Eccles · Coventry |
| 67' | 🟨 | Sam Greenwood · Middlesbrough |
| 69' | ⚽ | Tatsuhiro Sakamoto · Coventry |
| 82' | 🟨 | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 12 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 457.00 | 2497.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1655.03 | 1665.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.65 | 29.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.60 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.83 |
| league points | 36.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 1.05 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.48 | 25.77 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 237.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.27 |