← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 46% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.57 | fair |
| Stoke win | 27% | 23% | 3.66 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke −0.5 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Watford −0.5 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 15' | ⚽ | Jake Livermore · Watford |
| 34' | ⚽ | Ryan Mmaee · Stoke |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ismael Koné · Watford |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · Watford |
| 52' | 🟥 | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 72' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 80' | 🟨 | James Morris · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 242.00 | 28.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1619.60 | 1556.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.99 | 10.44 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | -0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 34.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | -0.63 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 26.63 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -0.69 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 191.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.42 |