← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 41% | 39% | 2.34 | fair |
| Norwich win | 30% | 34% | 3.33 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Tom Bradshaw · Millwall |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Norwich |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 75' | 🟨 | Kenny McLean · Norwich |
| 81' | 🟨 | George Honeyman · Millwall |
| 81' | 🟨 | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 88' | 🟥 | George Saville · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Leonard · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Duncan Watmore · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcelino Núñez · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| venue | The Den |
| Adam Idah · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 89.00 | 362.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1579.51 | 1601.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.44 | 18.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 51.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 26.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 3.28 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.70 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 27.58 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.84 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.16 |