← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 52% | 42% | 1.84 | fair |
| Blackburn win | 24% | 32% | 4.06 | value: +30% |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.18 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Hull −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.51 |
| Under | 37% | 2.65 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Ozan Tufan · Hull |
| 11' | ⚽ | Liam Delap · Hull |
| 18' | ⚽ | Aaron Connolly · Hull |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jake Garrett · Blackburn |
| 33' | ⚽ | Sammie Szmodics · Blackburn |
| 37' | 🟨 | James Hill · Blackburn |
| 45' | ⚽ | Harry Pickering · Blackburn |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sondre Tronstad · Blackburn |
| 59' | 🟨 | Dominic Hyam · Blackburn |
| 63' | ⚽ | Alfie Jones · Hull |
| 72' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | The MKM Stadium |
| 74' | 🟨 | Dominic Hyam · Blackburn |
| 74' | 🟥 | Dominic Hyam · Blackburn |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tyler Morton · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 423.00 | 576.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 3.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1612.29 | 1571.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.60 | -44.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 46.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 36.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.26 | -1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.47 | 23.31 |
| state index | 0.01 | -0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 139.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 0.79 |