← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Dec 26, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 38% | 2.59 |
| Birmingham win | 34% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stoke +0 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Birmingham +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.89 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Koji Miyoshi · Birmingham |
| 12' | ⚽ | Jordan Thompson · Stoke |
| 31' | ⚽ | Lynden Gooch · Stoke |
| 33' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · Birmingham |
| 34' | 🟨 | André Vidigal · Stoke |
| 51' | 🟨 | Junior Tchamadeu · Stoke |
| 53' | ⚽ | André Vidigal · Stoke |
| 69' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jun-Ho Bae · Stoke |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | St Andrew's Stadium |
| coach days | 86.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1533.63 | 1539.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.59 | -13.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| league points | 27.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 3.09 | 3.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.61 |
| solidity v1 | -0.60 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.80 | 27.81 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 60.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.36 |