← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 43% | 37% | 2.24 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 31% | 36% | 3.19 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.73 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Huddersfield +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Jaheim Headley · Huddersfield |
| 35' | 🟨 | Hayden Carter · Blackburn |
| 49' | 🟨 | Tom Lees · Huddersfield |
| 51' | 🟨 | Adam Wharton · Blackburn |
| 55' | ⚽ | Sorba Thomas · Huddersfield |
| 68' | ⚽ | Delano Burgzorg · Huddersfield |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Blackburn |
| 90' | 🟨 | Callum Brittain · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 116.00 | 573.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1537.52 | 1588.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.63 | -44.57 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 46.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 22.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.46 | -1.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 25.07 |
| state index | -0.81 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 48.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.83 |