← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn win | 37% | 37% | 2.66 | fair |
| Watford win | 36% | 35% | 2.67 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Blackburn +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Adam Wharton · Blackburn |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jake Garrett · Blackburn |
| 65' | 🟨 | Wesley Hoedt · Watford |
| 81' | 🟨 | Mileta Rajović · Watford |
| 83' | ⚽ | Mileta Rajović · Watford |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ryan Andrews · Watford |
| 87' | ⚽ | Rhys Healey · Watford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Andrew Moran · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackburn | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Ewood Park |
| coach days | 570.00 | 236.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1599.01 | 1631.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.61 | 33.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.30 | 64.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.80 |
| league points | 31.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.93 | -0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.19 | 27.33 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 270.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.53 |