← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 23, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 54% | 52% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.22 | fair |
| Ipswich win | 22% | 26% | 4.33 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Leeds −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.61 |
| Under | 41% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Pascal Struijk · Leeds |
| 25' | ⚽ (og) | Leif Davis · Leeds |
| 29' | 🟨 | Harry Clarke · Ipswich |
| 34' | 🟨 | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Crysencio Summerville · Leeds |
| 52' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Leeds |
| 60' | 🟨 | Axel Tuanzebe · Ipswich |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nathan Broadhead · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dominic Ball · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 2 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 175.00 | 752.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1733.29 | 1767.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.47 | 27.66 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.20 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.56 |
| league points | 42.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 2.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | 0.83 |
| solidity v1 | 1.07 | 1.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 23.69 | 27.45 |
| state index | 0.86 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 264.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.45 |