← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Fri, Dec 22, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Toner
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 37% | 31% | 2.62 | fair |
| Bristol City win | 34% | 41% | 2.93 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Bristol City +0 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Jean Michaël Seri · Hull |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Tommy Conway · Bristol City |
| 33' | ⚽ | Aaron Connolly · Hull |
| 39' | 🟨 | George Tanner · Bristol City |
| 42' | 🟨 | Zak Vyner · Bristol City |
| 42' | ⚽ (pen) | Ozan Tufan · Hull |
| 53' | 🟨 | Ryan Allsop · Hull |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jacob Greaves · Hull |
| 76' | ⚽ | Anis Mehmeti · Bristol City |
| 84' | ⚽ | Jason Knight · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Ashton Gate Stadium |
| coach days | 51.00 | 416.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1579.96 | 1633.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.51 | 2.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 1.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 89.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 1.61 |
| solidity v1 | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 27.76 | 26.65 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 0.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.95 |