← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Millwall win | 55% | 50% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.76 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 19% | 23% | 5.37 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Huddersfield −0.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Millwall −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand