← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Dec 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 39% | 39% | 2.46 | fair |
| Watford win | 33% | 37% | 2.96 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Ipswich +0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Yáser Asprilla · Watford |
| 24' | ⚽ | George Hirst · Ipswich |
| 39' | 🟨 | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 45' | 🟨 | George Hirst · Ipswich |
| 46' | 🟨 | Edo Kayembe · Watford |
| 53' | 🟨 | Massimo Luongo · Ipswich |
| 80' | ⚽ | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 84' | 🟨 | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Omari Hutchinson · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 225.00 | 741.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1619.00 | 1766.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.45 | 14.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.68 |
| league points | 28.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | -0.13 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.10 | 26.94 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.17 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 115.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.05 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.45 |