← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 43% | 46% | 2.23 | fair |
| Rotherham win | 29% | 29% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.55 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea +0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Rotherham +0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Daniel Ayala · Rotherham |
| 17' | 🟨 | Daniel Ayala · Rotherham |
| 17' | 🟥 | Daniel Ayala · Rotherham |
| 18' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Swansea |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jamal Lowe · Swansea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Charlie Patiño · Swansea |
| 64' | ⚽ | Sam Nombe · Rotherham |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jerry Yates · Swansea |
| 79' | 🟨 | Oliver Rathbone · Rotherham |
| 86' | 🟨 | Grant Hall · Rotherham |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rotherham | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |
| Bashir Humphreys · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 5.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1491.50 | 1616.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.04 | -20.21 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.50 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.75 |
| league points | 13.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 32.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.76 | 0.25 |
| solidity v1 | -1.47 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.86 | 27.01 |
| state index | -0.85 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.48 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.06 |