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QPR 2–0 Hull

← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hull win41%2.38
QPR win30%3.20
Draw29%3.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
QPR +0.2552%1.87
Hull +0.2548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.75
Over45%2.16

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'⚽Chris Willock · QPR
51'🟨Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Hull
70'🟨Lyndon Dykes · QPR
70'🟨Jean Michaël Seri · Hull
73'⚽Ilias Chair · QPR
87'🟨Liam Delap · Hull

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
13Shots15
4On target6
4Corners4
10Fouls7
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricQPRHull
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.480.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.510.54
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMATRADE Loftus Road
coach days69.00403.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.003.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.002.00
corners for avg (last 5)7.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)4.163.02
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.15
dominance (last 5)0.560.67
elo1486.671626.89
elo momentum (last 5)40.00-7.47
eye test v1-0.211.47
eye trend v10.660.63
first sub minute (last 10)59.8061.00
form points (last 5)8.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.08
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.30
keeper form v10.570.59
league points16.0030.00
league rank22.006.00
matches since blank2.009.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8088.80
possession avg (last 5)53.2063.60
rest days7.797.00
scorer concentration0.200.24
season ppg0.841.58
shot diff avg (last 5)2.609.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.8018.40
skill v10.451.95
solidity v11.560.87
sot against avg (last 5)2.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.679.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.207.40
squad age28.8325.75
state index0.280.29
sterile dominance v10.600.80
threat rate (last 10)0.230.27
threat rate (last 3)0.230.36
threat rate (last 5)0.210.30
travel km—248.90
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00
xg against avg (last 5)0.590.68
xg for avg (last 5)1.061.76