← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Linington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 41% | 38% | 2.35 | fair |
| Millwall win | 30% | 35% | 3.30 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Sunderland +0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Mason Burstow · Sunderland |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
| 44' | ⚽ | Kevin Nisbet · Millwall |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Ballard · Sunderland |
| 67' | 🟨 | George Saville · Millwall |
| 75' | 🟨 | Bartosz Białkowski · Millwall |
| 78' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
| 81' | 🟨 | Tom Bradshaw · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Duncan Watmore · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 62.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 9.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1583.06 | 1639.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.26 | -11.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 1.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 67.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 13.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 23.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.65 | 2.02 |
| solidity v1 | -1.25 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 24.71 | 22.85 |
| state index | -0.39 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 2.34 |