← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Wed, Nov 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 60% | 56% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.30 | fair |
| Millwall win | 17% | 22% | 5.82 | value: +30% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Ipswich −1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 12' | ⚽ | Massimo Luongo · Ipswich |
| 25' | 🟨 | Massimo Luongo · Ipswich |
| 37' | 🟨 | Zian Flemming · Millwall |
| 39' | ⚽ | Nathan Broadhead · Ipswich |
| 46' | 🟨 | George Honeyman · Millwall |
| 52' | 🟨 | Nathan Broadhead · Ipswich |
| 54' | 🟨 | Casper De Norre · Millwall |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kevin Nisbet · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 728.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 3.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1739.99 | 1589.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.32 | -22.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.77 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.10 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 39.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 4.10 | 4.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | -0.65 |
| solidity v1 | -0.23 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 24.71 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.09 |