← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Nov 28, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 43% | 46% | 2.26 | value: +4% |
| Norwich win | 29% | 29% | 3.35 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.49 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Norwich −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.94 |
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Danny Batth · Norwich |
| 12' | ⚽ | Ui-Jo Hwang · Norwich |
| 18' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · Watford |
| 30' | ⚽ | Ismael Koné · Watford |
| 33' | ⚽ | Mileta Rajović · Watford |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jack Stacey · Norwich |
| 64' | 🟨 | Shane Duffy · Norwich |
| 77' | ⚽ | Yáser Asprilla · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Borja Sainz · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Giannoulis · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 211.00 | 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1598.22 | 1578.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.08 | -18.20 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| league points | 21.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.11 |
| solidity v1 | 0.64 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 29.98 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 159.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.23 |