← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Nov 28, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: R. Welch
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 65% | 51% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.50 | value: +17% |
| Rotherham win | 13% | 23% | 7.63 | value: +75% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull −1 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Rotherham −1 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.89 |
| Under | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Tyler Morton · Hull |
| 9' | ⚽ | Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Hull |
| 20' | ⚽ | Scott Twine · Hull |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jordan Hugill · Rotherham |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Hull |
| 59' | ⚽ | Grant Hall · Rotherham |
| 62' | 🟨 | Sebastian Revan · Rotherham |
| 88' | 🟨 | Sean McLoughlin · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | The MKM Stadium |
| coach days | 392.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1630.88 | 1497.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.29 | -17.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 27.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 66.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 35.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | -1.62 |
| solidity v1 | 1.21 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 27.96 |
| state index | 0.64 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -1.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.64 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 0.86 |