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Norwich 1–0 QPR

← EFL Championship 2023-24 Β· Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: S. Martin

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Norwich win55%1.75
Draw25%3.99
QPR win20%4.85

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
QPR βˆ’0.7550%1.95
Norwich βˆ’0.7550%1.96

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.04

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'⚽Ui-Jo Hwang · Norwich
48'🟨Jack Colback · QPR
72'🟨Chris Willock · QPR
77'🟨Gabriel Sara · Norwich
80'🟨Andre Dozzell · QPR
84'🟨Christian Fassnacht · Norwich
90'🟨Ashley Barnes · Norwich
90'🟨Kenny McLean · Norwich
90'🟨Steve Cook · QPR

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots9
1On target3
4Corners7
18Fouls12
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricNorwichQPR
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.600.51
cards avg (last 5)2.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueCarrow Road
coach days328.0055.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.313.29
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.14
dominance (last 5)0.490.44
elo1573.751452.01
elo momentum (last 5)-32.42-8.78
eye test v10.25-1.47
eye trend v10.390.08
first sub minute (last 10)51.8055.70
form points (last 5)3.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.53
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.60β€”
league points20.0010.00
league rank17.0023.00
matches since blank9.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win0.0011.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4073.80
possession avg (last 5)49.0043.60
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.270.27
season ppg1.250.63
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.408.40
skill v10.42-0.71
solidity v1-1.310.46
sot against avg (last 5)6.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.302.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.801.60
squad age26.6728.83
state index-0.39-0.95
sterile dominance v1-0.32-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.330.25
threat rate (last 5)0.310.20
travel kmβ€”162.50
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.531.07
xg for avg (last 5)1.280.53