← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 77% | 66% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 19% | 6.98 | value: +29% |
| Plymouth win | 8% | 16% | 12.00 | value: +89% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −2 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Leeds −2 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 1.37 |
| Under | 30% | 3.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 28' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Leeds |
| 33' | 🟨 | Adam Randell · Plymouth |
| 61' | 🟨 | Morgan Whittaker · Plymouth |
| 66' | 🟨 | Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ben Waine · Plymouth |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lewis Gibson · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ilia Gruev · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 133.00 | 710.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 4.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1720.21 | 1599.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.60 | -5.72 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.81 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| league points | 28.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | 0.04 |
| solidity v1 | 1.23 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.33 | 24.24 |
| state index | 1.11 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.01 |