← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Welch
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 47% | 35% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.69 | fair |
| Norwich win | 26% | 39% | 3.89 | value: +52% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Cardiff −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Karlan Grant · Cardiff |
| 22' | ⚽ | Christian Fassnacht · Norwich |
| 39' | ⚽ | Josh Bowler · Cardiff |
| 43' | ⚽ | Callum Robinson · Cardiff |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marcelino Núñez · Norwich |
| 77' | 🟨 | Liam Gibbs · Norwich |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ryan Wintle · Cardiff |
| 82' | ⚽ (og) | Ryan Wintle · Norwich |
| 84' | ⚽ | Adam Idah · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 163.00 | 314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1599.05 | 1561.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.76 | -41.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| league points | 24.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.13 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 0.26 |
| solidity v1 | 1.15 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.24 | 27.25 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.61 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 333.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.79 |