← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 5, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 43% | 49% | 2.24 | value: +9% |
| Blackburn win | 31% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.88 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Norwich −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.56 |
| Under | 38% | 2.56 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Tyrhys Dolan · Blackburn |
| 15' | ⚽ | Sammie Szmodics · Blackburn |
| 24' | 🟨 | Onel Hernández · Norwich |
| 30' | 🟨 | Joe Rankin-Costello · Blackburn |
| 46' | 🟨 | Shane Duffy · Norwich |
| 49' | ⚽ | Sammie Szmodics · Blackburn |
| 54' | 🟥 | Scott Wharton · Blackburn |
| 86' | 🟨 | Marcelino Núñez · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Blackburn |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gabriel Sara · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 308.00 | 522.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1577.64 | 1599.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.04 | 19.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.83 |
| league points | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 7.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.74 |
| solidity v1 | -1.54 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.88 | 24.29 |
| state index | -0.63 | 0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 281.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.39 |