← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Mon, Oct 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 40% | 41% | 2.38 | fair |
| West Brom win | 30% | 31% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.29 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Coventry −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.68 |
| Over | 43% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Grady Diangana · West Brom |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Chalobah · West Brom |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cédric Kipré · West Brom |
| 55' | 🟨 | Milan van Ewijk · Coventry |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kyle Bartley · West Brom |
| 69' | ⚽ | Brandon Thomas-Asante · West Brom |
| 73' | 🟨 | Liam Kitching · Coventry |
| 73' | 🟨 | Okay Yokuşlu · West Brom |
| 75' | 🟨 | Erik Pieters · West Brom |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Coventry | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Coventry Building Society Arena |
| coach days | 2434.00 | 394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.44 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.75 |
| elo | 1632.30 | 1637.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.68 | 14.94 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | -0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.80 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 5.05 | 6.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 10.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | 0.87 | 1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.83 | 28.71 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 32.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.53 |