← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 44% | 41% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.22 | fair |
| Millwall win | 26% | 29% | 3.75 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Millwall −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.56 |
| Over | 38% | 2.54 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Yáser Asprilla · Watford |
| 12' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Millwall |
| 27' | 🟨 | Zian Flemming · Millwall |
| 37' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · Watford |
| 38' | 🟨 | George Saville · Millwall |
| 50' | 🟨 | Yáser Asprilla · Watford |
| 79' | 🟨 | Ken Sema · Watford |
| 85' | ⚽ | Wes Harding · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brooke Norton-Cuffy · Millwall |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mileta Rajović · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 180.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1592.45 | 1600.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.60 | -14.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | -0.39 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.83 | 24.71 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.99 | 1.07 |