← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 48% | 48% | 2.00 | fair |
| Norwich win | 26% | 28% | 3.88 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.82 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Sunderland −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Christian Fassnacht · Norwich |
| 23' | ⚽ | Ui-Jo Hwang · Norwich |
| 24' | 🟨 | Daniel Ballard · Sunderland |
| 37' | ⚽ | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 41' | 🟨 | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dan Neil · Sunderland |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Giannoulis · Norwich |
| 78' | 🟨 | Kenny McLean · Norwich |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alex Pritchard · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| Luís Semedo · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Idah · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 453.00 | 300.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1650.66 | 1587.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.10 | -13.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.03 |
| solidity v1 | -0.04 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 22.98 | 27.48 |
| state index | 0.18 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 310.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.59 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.91 |