← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 65% | 75% | 1.48 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.75 | fair |
| QPR win | 14% | 7% | 7.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR +1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Leicester +1.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Stephy Mavididi · Leicester |
| 40' | ⚽ | Andre Dozzell · QPR |
| 59' | 🟨 | Andre Dozzell · QPR |
| 59' | 🟨 | Andre Dozzell · QPR |
| 59' | 🟥 | Andre Dozzell · QPR |
| 59' | 🟨 | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jack Colback · QPR |
| 80' | ⚽ | Harry Winks · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | MATRADE Loftus Road |
| coach days | 27.00 | 119.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1449.34 | 1834.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.69 | 35.23 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| league points | 8.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 2.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 1.55 |
| solidity v1 | -0.84 | 1.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 25.95 |
| state index | -1.41 | 1.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 1.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 138.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 0.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.78 |