← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 70% | 70% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 15% | 5.77 | fair |
| Plymouth win | 13% | 15% | 7.96 | value: +19% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −1.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Ipswich −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 1.38 |
| Under | 29% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Morgan Whittaker · Plymouth |
| 28' | 🟨 | Mickel Miller · Plymouth |
| 32' | 🟨 | Massimo Luongo · Ipswich |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Bali Mumba · Ipswich |
| 54' | ⚽ | George Hirst · Ipswich |
| 62' | 🟨 | Bali Mumba · Plymouth |
| 66' | 🟨 | Luke Woolfenden · Ipswich |
| 68' | 🟨 | Brandon Williams · Ipswich |
| 74' | 🟨 | George Edmundson · Ipswich |
| 86' | ⚽ | Marcus Harness · Ipswich |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 696.00 | 696.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 4.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1756.32 | 1603.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.25 | -17.92 |
| eye test v1 | 1.66 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| league points | 31.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.58 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | -0.28 |
| solidity v1 | 0.46 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.28 | 24.45 |
| state index | 1.26 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | -0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.26 |