← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 63% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.68 |
| Birmingham win | 15% | 6.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southampton −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Birmingham −1 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Taylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton |
| 22' | ⚽ | Carlos Alcaraz · Southampton |
| 44' | 🟨 | Emanuel Aiwu · Birmingham |
| 58' | ⚽ | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Gary Gardner · Birmingham |
| 86' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan James · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 119.00 | 27.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1653.10 | 1545.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.14 | 3.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.80 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| league points | 21.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.78 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.99 | -0.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.76 | 28.00 |
| state index | 0.65 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.22 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 177.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.05 |