← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 28, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 73% | 61% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 23% | 5.77 | value: +34% |
| Huddersfield win | 9% | 16% | 11.00 | value: +78% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds −1.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Huddersfield −1.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.56 |
| Under | 39% | 2.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield |
| 31' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · Leeds |
| 34' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 37' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Huddersfield |
| 40' | 🟨 | Brahima Diarra · Huddersfield |
| 45' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · Leeds |
| 50' | 🟨 | Tom Lees · Huddersfield |
| 70' | ⚽ | Michał Helik · Huddersfield |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 119.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1696.66 | 1560.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.55 | -32.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.72 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.62 |
| league points | 22.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 2.69 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | -0.83 |
| solidity v1 | 0.83 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 23.70 | 26.64 |
| state index | 0.56 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 18.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.78 | 1.53 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.27 |