← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Oct 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 62% | 71% | 1.56 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.54 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 17% | 10% | 5.97 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester −1 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Sunderland −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.65 |
| Under | 41% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | James Justin · Leicester |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 50' | 🟨 | Jannik Vestergaard · Leicester |
| 50' | 🟨 | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
| 54' | 🟨 | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 68' | 🟨 | James Justin · Leicester |
| 71' | 🟨 | Dennis Cirkin · Sunderland |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leicester | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | King Power Stadium |
| coach days | 115.00 | 449.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1830.41 | 1654.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.87 | -26.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.66 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.72 |
| league points | 33.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.60 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.75 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.91 | 0.57 |
| solidity v1 | 1.68 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 23.65 |
| state index | 1.66 | 0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.61 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 255.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.61 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.34 |