← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Oct 24, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 37% | 33% | 2.60 | fair |
| Norwich win | 36% | 43% | 2.69 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.69 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Norwich +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.71 |
| Under | 44% | 2.23 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | ⚽ | Sam Greenwood · Middlesbrough |
| 76' | 🟨 | Gabriel Sara · Norwich |
| 89' | 🟨 | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jon Rowe · Norwich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Seny Dieng · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | ⚽ | Samuel Silvera · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jon Rowe · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 296.00 | 388.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1597.14 | 1670.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.62 | 60.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 1.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.70 |
| league points | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 1.10 |
| solidity v1 | -1.52 | 1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 25.41 |
| state index | -0.26 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 274.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 0.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.97 |