← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Oct 24, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield win | 38% | 40% | 2.52 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 31% | 32% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Huddersfield −0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.63 |
| Over | 40% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (og) | Matthew Pearson · Cardiff |
| 12' | ⚽ | Dimitris Goutas · Cardiff |
| 43' | ⚽ | Yakou Méïté · Cardiff |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michał Helik · Huddersfield |
| 55' | ⚽ | Perry Ng · Cardiff |
| 63' | 🟨 | Manolis Siopis · Cardiff |
| 87' | 🟨 | Ebou Adams · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jamilu Collins · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 53.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1583.12 | 1561.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.58 | 4.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| league points | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -0.51 |
| solidity v1 | -0.36 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.12 | 27.30 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.29 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 261.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 0.91 |