← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 58% | 56% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.22 | fair |
| Plymouth win | 18% | 23% | 5.50 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Brom −0.75 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Plymouth −0.75 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Finn Azaz · Plymouth |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alex Mowatt · West Brom |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jordan Houghton · Plymouth |
| 50' | 🟨 | Dan Scarr · Plymouth |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mickel Miller · Plymouth |
| 77' | 🟨 | Kyle Bartley · West Brom |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bali Mumba · Plymouth |
| 85' | 🟨 | Michael Cooper · Plymouth |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kaine Kesler-Hayden · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 4 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 385.00 | 689.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 4.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1633.80 | 1588.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.76 | -33.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| league points | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 14.79 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | 0.98 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 28.90 | 26.30 |
| state index | 0.64 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.98 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.28 |