← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 53% | 67% | 1.83 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
| Swansea win | 22% | 12% | 4.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea +0.75 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Leicester +0.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Liam Cullen · Swansea |
| 20' | ⚽ | Matt Grimes · Swansea |
| 44' | ⚽ | Jannik Vestergaard · Leicester |
| 48' | 🟨 | James Justin · Leicester |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ricardo Pereira · Leicester |
| 63' | ⚽ | Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · Leicester |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kelechi Iheanacho · Leicester |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Swansea.com Stadium |
| coach days | 112.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1648.99 | 1820.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 58.63 | 35.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.55 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.83 |
| league points | 15.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 89.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 2.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | 1.81 |
| solidity v1 | -0.07 | 1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.28 | 25.77 |
| state index | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 1.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 219.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 0.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 1.84 |