← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 47% | 40% | 2.05 | fair |
| Norwich win | 27% | 34% | 3.65 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.81 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Leeds +0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Shane Duffy · Norwich |
| 10' | 🟨 | Shane Duffy · Norwich |
| 19' | 🟨 | Crysencio Summerville · Leeds |
| 34' | 🟨 | Gabriel Sara · Norwich |
| 43' | ⚽ | Gabriel Sara · Norwich |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joe Rodon · Leeds |
| 63' | ⚽ (og) | Shane Duffy · Leeds |
| 77' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · Leeds |
| 85' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · Leeds |
| 87' | 🟨 | Illan Meslier · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 19 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 293.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1606.16 | 1700.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.52 | 2.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 60.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| league points | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 9.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | 0.88 |
| solidity v1 | -1.30 | 1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 24.22 |
| state index | -0.13 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 230.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.11 | 0.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.83 |