← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall win | 38% | 47% | 2.60 | value: +21% |
| Hull win | 32% | 25% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Hull +0 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.67 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Duncan Watmore · Millwall |
| 9' | 🟨 | Danny McNamara · Millwall |
| 25' | ⚽ | Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Hull |
| 30' | ⚽ | Adama Traoré · Hull |
| 36' | 🟨 | Wes Harding · Millwall |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ryan Allsop · Hull |
| 52' | 🟨 | Casper De Norre · Millwall |
| 54' | ⚽ | Joe Bryan · Millwall |
| 72' | 🟨 | Aaron Connolly · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Bryan · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 18 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Millwall | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Den |
| coach days | 6.00 | 340.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1612.61 | 1621.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.07 | 3.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| league points | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 0.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.23 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.71 | 25.63 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 0.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.28 |