← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 7, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 42% | 48% | 2.27 | value: +9% |
| Middlesbrough win | 31% | 28% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.62 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Sunderland −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Dan Neil · Sunderland |
| 32' | 🟨 | Isaiah Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Ballard · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dan Neil · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟥 | Dan Neil · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josh Coburn · Middlesbrough |
| 58' | ⚽ | Sam Greenwood · Middlesbrough |
| 60' | ⚽ | Matt Crooks · Middlesbrough |
| 70' | 🟨 | Patrick Roberts · Sunderland |
| 72' | ⚽ | Isaiah Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 73' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| Jack Clarke · Sunderland |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcus Forss · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 432.00 | 371.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1691.05 | 1640.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.54 | 22.62 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| league points | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | 1.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.64 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 22.66 | 25.01 |
| state index | 0.98 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 38.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.74 | 1.91 |