← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Oct 3, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 38% | 47% | 2.60 | value: +22% |
| Millwall win | 35% | 24% | 2.77 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.55 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Millwall +0 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.81 |
| Under | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Mickel Miller · Plymouth |
| 53' | 🟨 | Danny McNamara · Millwall |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jake Cooper · Millwall |
| 54' | 🟨 | Allan Campbell · Millwall |
| 59' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Millwall |
| 63' | 🟨 | Julio Pleguezuelo · Plymouth |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ryan Leonard · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brooke Norton-Cuffy · Millwall |
| 90' | 🟨 | Murray Wallace · Millwall |
| 90' | ⚽ | George Saville · Millwall |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 671.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.37 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1623.58 | 1593.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.71 | -25.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | -0.56 |
| solidity v1 | -0.74 | 0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.71 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.00 |