← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Oct 3, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 45% | 39% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 26% | 33% | 3.83 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Huddersfield −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.65 |
| Over | 42% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Siriki Dembélé · Birmingham |
| 23' | ⚽ | Koji Miyoshi · Birmingham |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jay Stansfield · Birmingham |
| 55' | 🟨 | Matthew Pearson · Huddersfield |
| 58' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · Birmingham |
| 64' | ⚽ | Siriki Dembélé · Birmingham |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kevin Long · Birmingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Michał Helik · Huddersfield |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jordan James · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Birmingham | Huddersfield |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | St Andrew's Stadium |
| coach days | 2.00 | 32.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1531.78 | 1594.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.03 | 26.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| league points | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 64.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -1.34 |
| solidity v1 | 0.82 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.92 | 27.15 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | -1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 131.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.16 |