← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 36% | 30% | 2.70 | fair |
| Watford win | 36% | 44% | 2.78 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.45 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough +0 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Watford +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Riley McGree · Middlesbrough |
| 12' | ⚽ | Riley McGree · Middlesbrough |
| 19' | ⚽ | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 52' | ⚽ | Wesley Hoedt · Watford |
| 55' | 🟨 | Francisco Sierralta · Watford |
| 63' | ⚽ | Josh Coburn · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 152.00 | 364.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.53 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1588.85 | 1619.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.32 | -36.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.37 | 1.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.79 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 23.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | — |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | 1.11 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 25.11 | 25.32 |
| state index | 0.00 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 330.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.83 | 2.15 |