← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Nield
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 38% | 42% | 2.59 | value: +10% |
| QPR win | 34% | 30% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry +0 | 53% | 1.86 |
| QPR +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Jay Dasilva · Coventry |
| 53' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · QPR |
| 56' | ⚽ | Ellis Simms · Coventry |
| 60' | ⚽ | Josh Eccles · Coventry |
| 63' | 🟨 | Sinclair Armstrong · QPR |
| 65' | 🟨 | Steve Cook · QPR |
| 68' | ⚽ | Ellis Simms · Coventry |
| 75' | 🟨 | Jamie Allen · Coventry |
| 77' | 🟨 | Andre Dozzell · QPR |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kenneth Paal · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Loftus Road |
| coach days | 241.00 | 2404.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1492.03 | 1647.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.33 | -21.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 68.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| league points | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | 0.48 |
| solidity v1 | -0.09 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.68 | 26.68 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 135.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.18 | 0.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 1.36 |