← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Ward
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 51% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 |
| Birmingham win | 23% | 4.36 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Birmingham −0.5 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.92 |
| Over | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 55' | ⚽ | Gabriel Sara · Norwich |
| 60' | ⚽ | Jon Rowe · Norwich |
| 65' | 🟨 | Gabriel Sara · Norwich |
| 83' | 🟨 | Kevin Long · Birmingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| coach days | 272.00 | 456.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1600.62 | 1541.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.21 | -10.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.69 | 27.85 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 215.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 0.77 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.43 |