← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Eltringham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 46% | 43% | 2.13 | fair |
| Huddersfield win | 27% | 34% | 3.53 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield +0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Ipswich +0.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Yuta Nakayama · Huddersfield |
| 20' | 🟨 | Cameron Burgess · Ipswich |
| 35' | 🟨 | Sorba Thomas · Huddersfield |
| 35' | 🟨 | Wes Burns · Ipswich |
| 52' | 🟨 | Leif Davis · Ipswich |
| 61' | 🟨 | Delano Burgzorg · Huddersfield |
| 61' | ⚽ | Delano Burgzorg · Huddersfield |
| 87' | ⚽ | Brandon Williams · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huddersfield | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | John Smith's Stadium |
| coach days | 29.00 | 668.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1592.09 | 1734.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.85 | 14.02 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 2.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.22 | 0.65 |
| solidity v1 | -0.41 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 27.00 |
| state index | 0.11 | 0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.48 | -1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| travel km | — | 264.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.97 |