← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 43% | 61% | 2.21 | value: +34% ⚠ |
| Southampton win | 31% | 23% | 3.26 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 17% | 3.71 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Southampton −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.24 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Adam Armstrong · Southampton |
| 44' | ⚽ | Riley McGree · Middlesbrough |
| 53' | 🟨 | Isaiah Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 58' | 🟨 | Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan Howson · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tommy Smith · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Riverside Stadium |
| coach days | 357.00 | 84.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1610.53 | 1630.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.70 | -27.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.78 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| league points | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.29 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | 1.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | -1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.96 | 24.69 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 408.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.17 |