← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Simpson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 54% | 44% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.97 | value: +8% |
| Watford win | 21% | 28% | 4.70 | value: +34% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Leeds −0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.73 |
| Under | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Georginio Rutter · Leeds |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ryan Andrews · Watford |
| 67' | 🟨 | Daniel Bachmann · Watford |
| 67' | ⚽ | Joël Piroe · Leeds |
| 70' | ⚽ | Sam Byram · Leeds |
| 88' | 🟨 | Vakoun Issouf Bayo · Watford |
| 89' | ⚽ | Jaidon Anthony · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 84.00 | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1697.17 | 1598.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.67 | -6.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 52.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.45 | 0.74 |
| league points | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.63 |
| solidity v1 | 0.78 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.01 | 24.71 |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 249.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 0.93 |