← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 57% | 51% | 1.66 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.38 | fair |
| Blackburn win | 20% | 27% | 5.02 | value: +35% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −0.75 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Blackburn −0.75 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.58 |
| Under | 38% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Harry Clarke · Ipswich |
| 9' | ⚽ | Arnór Sigurðsson · Blackburn |
| 18' | ⚽ | Nathan Broadhead · Ipswich |
| 25' | ⚽ | George Hirst · Ipswich |
| 31' | 🟨 | Andrew Moran · Blackburn |
| 40' | 🟨 | Arnór Sigurðsson · Blackburn |
| 48' | 🟨 | Sam Morsy · Ipswich |
| 52' | ⚽ (og) | Harry Clarke · Blackburn |
| 59' | 🟨 | George Hirst · Ipswich |
| 62' | 🟨 | Hayden Carter · Blackburn |
| 65' | ⚽ |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| Sammie Szmodics · Blackburn |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lewis Travis · Blackburn |
| 74' | 🟨 | Conor Chaplin · Ipswich |
| 79' | ⚽ | Massimo Luongo · Ipswich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 661.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1729.07 | 1595.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.53 | -21.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 2.57 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 0.10 | -1.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.48 | 24.26 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 306.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.84 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.69 |