← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Wed, Sep 20, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 48% | 42% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
| Hull win | 25% | 31% | 3.83 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull +0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Leeds +0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Luke Ayling · Leeds |
| 43' | 🟨 | Joe Rodon · Leeds |
| 52' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Leeds |
| 54' | 🟨 | Scott Twine · Hull |
| 60' | 🟨 | Joe Rodon · Leeds |
| 60' | 🟥 | Joe Rodon · Leeds |
| 69' | 🟨 | Aaron Connolly · Hull |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jaden Philogene-Bidace · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 0 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | The MKM Stadium |
| coach days | 323.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1617.65 | 1697.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 40.16 | 10.24 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.74 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 3.32 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -0.20 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.11 | 24.17 |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 79.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.58 |