← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Sep 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Kitchen
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 36% | 40% | 2.68 | value: +6% |
| QPR win | 35% | 35% | 2.76 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.43 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| QPR +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Nathan Wood · Swansea |
| 7' | ⚽ | Josh Ginnelly · Swansea |
| 67' | 🟨 | Osman Kakay · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Cooper · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oliver Cooper · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟥 | Oliver Cooper · Swansea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lyndon Dykes · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Loftus Road |
| coach days | 230.00 | 80.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1487.58 | 1590.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.97 | -47.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.51 | 0.21 |
| solidity v1 | -0.52 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.21 | 25.39 |
| state index | -0.30 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.33 | 0.81 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 256.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.09 |