← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Tue, Sep 19, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Allison
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 36% | 33% | 2.77 | fair |
| Coventry win | 35% | 39% | 2.69 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.39 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Cardiff +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Dimitris Goutas · Cardiff |
| 35' | ⚽ | Matt Godden · Coventry |
| 61' | ⚽ | Karlan Grant · Cardiff |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jamilu Collins · Cardiff |
| 82' | 🟨 | Matt Godden · Coventry |
| 84' | ⚽ | Kion Etete · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kion Etete · Cardiff |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Latibeaudiere · Coventry |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matt Godden · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cardiff | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Cardiff City Stadium |
| coach days | 110.00 | 2393.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 2.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1545.34 | 1663.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.83 | 10.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 26.64 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 159.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 1.14 |